What does a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine?
February 2025
Maurits Foorthuis
THRI Fellow
Although it might seem odd to some, most Ukrainians did not react as shocked to the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump in November 2024 as many other people around the world did. Although Ukraine is very much dependent on U.S. support and although Trump has threatened to cut its aid to the country, Ukrainians reacted rather calm on the news of Trump’s re-election. Whereas foreign experts often proclaimed Trump as being very bad news for Ukraine, Ukrainians responded in a more nuanced way.
“It can’t get much worse than it already is”, was something I often heard when asking Ukrainians their opinion on the newly elected U.S. President. Under Biden, and likely also under a Harris presidency, Ukrainians knew what they would get. Namely enough weapons and support to hold the line, but not enough weapons and support to actually liberate some of the occupied lands. With Trump, nobody knows what Ukraine will get. One Ukrainian security source told The Guardian that a Trump presidency is like going to a casino for Ukraine. They might loose it all, but they might win something as well. Ukrainians are tired and are willing to make risky bets[1].
When Trump was installed on January 20th, he did not specifically mention Ukraine in his inaugurational speech. He did mention however that he would not get the U.S. army involved in any new wars. On social media he later spoke about Zelensky’s willingness to enter into peace negotiations and Putin’s unwillingness to do so. He threatened Russia with high tariff’s if they would not enter into peace negotiations with the Ukrainian government. In response, some of Russia’s propagandists started longing back to the Biden era on television. For now it appears that Zelensky knows how to appeal to Trump and how to communicate with him. As a result, Trump is quite pro-Ukrainian in his statements. As Trump is unpredictable however, it can be very difficult to say what this would mean for Ukraine’s future.
Photo Credit: Vecteezy.com
For starters, it is extremely difficult, even for Trump, to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine which would leave both parties satisfied. Although Ukraine now appears willing to accept that large parts of its territory will remain under temporal occupation, it is not ready to officially accept these territories as Russian. Next to that, Ukraine can only accept any kind of peace deal that involves a ceasefire if it gets enough security guarantees from their Western allies, in order to prevent Russia from once again attacking Ukraine in a year or two. The Russian side on the other hand, appears to only accept a peace deal that would allow them to officially annex the territories they are currently holding, and for the remaining part of free Ukraine to become a rather defenseless country, preferably even with a pro-Russian government. Any scenario in which Ukraine will become part of NATO is unacceptable to the Russian side.
On February 12th, U.S. Defense Minister Hegseth suggested that Ukraine has to give up all the territory that is currently under Russian occupation, and cannot become member of NATO. The unpredictability of the Trump administration is such that in one week he may appear very pro-Ukrainian, whereas in a different week he may be more on the Russian side.
The unpredictability of the Trump administration is such that in one week he may appear very pro-Ukrainian, whereas in a different week he may be more on the Russian side.
Although Trump may very well be a good dealmaker and although he may do more good for Ukraine than Biden did, I personally do not see him making any kind of deal that is acceptable to both warring parties and is fair to Ukraine. Trump’s unpredictability however makes that it cannot be entirely ruled out that the U.S. would send in troops to defend Ukraine, in a scenario where Russia angers Trump. In short, Trump’s Presidency is a casino for Ukraine. They may lose it all, but they may very well win the jackpot as well.