The second Trump presidency and Central Europe: Like-minded partners?
February 2025
Michaela Hrabušajová
PhD Student at Comenius University Bratislava
It is hard to predict anything about Trump´s second presidency. His foreign policy is no exception. However, a group of like-minded partners in Central Europe might attract an interest of his administration.
The main difference between Trump´s first and second presidency is that now, Trump has a pretty detailed plan he can use in Project 2025. The policy document was created by the Heritage Foundation for the second Trump administration. Trump tried to distance himself from the Project 2025 during the presidential campaign. However, after the election he praised the policy agenda, calling it “very conservative and very good.” He even picked 8 people (so far) with ties to the Project 2025 for his future administration.
The document covers all policy areas including the foreign policy. Reading the chapter about the State Department, one can find an interesting snippet about Central Europe: “[I]n the wake of Brexit, [the European Union] foreign policy now takes place without [the United Kingdom] input, which disadvantages the United States, given that the UK has historically been aligned with many US positions. Therefore, US diplomacy must be more attentive to inner-EU developments, while also developing new allies inside the EU – especially the Central European countries.”
Photo Credit: Vecteezy.com
It seems like author identifies Central Europe as a new source of Euroscepticism within the EU after Brexit. An approach of Trump´s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement to the EU is definitely tied to Euroscepticism and Brexit deprived it from a strong partner in Conservative party (or Nigel Farrage´s party) in the UK. Luckily, Central Europe has many like-minded partners for Trump. The first Trump administration had a pretty good relationship with the Law and Justice (PiS) government in Poland. While PiS is not currently in the government, there will be elections in Poland in 2027. Given the close polls there is a chance that PiS can return to government during Trump´s second administration.
Another Central Europe country, the Czech Republic, will hold elections this year. The ANO party of former prime minister Andrej Babiš, another like-minded partner for Trump, has a big lead in polls. After Trump´s reelection Babiš claimed that he is “sure that [Trump´s] victory brings prosperity for the US and peace for the world.” Politico once jokingly referred to Babiš as a “Temu Trump” (a cheap imitation of Trump) as Czech politician borrowed Trump´s campaign slogan (make the Czech Republic great again) and the typical red cap. Babiš even propose similar policies such as radical immigration policy or tax cuts.
But Trump doesn’t need to wait for favorable election results to find allies in the region. Current Slovak prime minister Robert Fico said that Trump will end war in Ukraine and even tried to bond with the US president-elect by mentioning to him that he was also a victim of an assassination attempt. Moreover, Peter Kotlár who was picked by Fico´s government to investigate moves of previous Slovak government during the COVID-19 pandemic was recently praised by Trump´s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy jr.
“Trump is hard to predict. However, if we take into account how people around Trump think about the Central Europe and number of like-minded partners in the region, it should not be surprising if the second Trump administration focuses more on Central Europe.”
Yet, the Central European leader with the best links to the MAGA movement is undoubtedly Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán had a speech at the 2022 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), important gathering of Republican politicians. Since 2022, there are special meetings of CPAC in Budapest (known as CPAC Hungary). Orbán and Trump regularly meet each other. Recently the Hungarian leader traveled to Mar-a-Lago in July and December 2024 to meet with Trump during the US presidential campaign and after Trump´s reelection respectively.
Ultimately, Trump is hard to predict. However, if we take into account how people around Trump think about the Central Europe and number of like-minded partners in the region, it should not be surprising if the second Trump administration focuses more on Central Europe.
References
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Michaela Hrabušajová is a PhD student of political science at the Comenius University in Bratislava. Her research is focusing on the EU-US relationship. During her master studies, she completed internships at Slovak embassy in Washington D.C. and at the Slovak Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs. Her diploma thesis about US exports of LNG received an award from Comenius University rector for an exceptional quality.