Regional trade and connectivity, key drivers to foster cooperation among Central Asian states
January 2024
Fabio Indeo
Research Fellow on energy security and geopolitics at the University of Siena.
The fifth consultative meeting of heads of state of Central Asia (which took place in September 2023 in the capital of Tajikistan, Dushanbe) significantly highlights that a process of gradual integration and improved cooperation is gaining ground in the region. This consultative format was inaugurated in 2018, actively promoted by both Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev and Kazakhstan’s former president Nazarbayev with the aim to draw up a broader cooperation among Central Asian states based on political dialogue and mutual trust in order to deal with the regional shared challenges.
The idea to develop an ambitious framework of endogenous cooperation mainly based on the achievement of the economic and political needs expressed by the five republics – within which the external actors such as Russia and China can be partners but without dictating the agenda – has progressively become a priority task for the regional governments, mainly due to the eroded geopolitical image of Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine.
In the Dushanbe summit emerged that economy, trade and connectivity issues remain the main-attractive fields of cooperation for the five republics. Given its geographic centrality, Kazakhstan is strongly interested in the promotion of interregional trade, also because its territory is a strategic bridge to connect Central Asia with Azerbaijan, Turkey and the EU’s markets. In his speech, Tokayev highlighted that intraregional trade turnover has grown by more than 80 percent in the last five years, reaching $10.6 billion, but stressing that the regional economic growth would increase mutual trade turnover to $15 billion (Eurasianet, 2023). Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdymukhamedov pointed out his attention to the development of a Central Asian transport and logistic platform, within which the region will play the role of transportation hub through the creation of new corridors, the modernization of the existing routes and the harmonisation of regulations.
” Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdymukhamedov pointed out his attention to the development of a Central Asian transport and logistic platform, within which the region will play the role of transportation hub through the creation of new corridors, the modernization of the existing routes and the harmonisation of regulations.”
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are both Caspian coastal states, so they perceive themselves as key actors for the Middle Corridor’s implementation, a strategic alternative to trade routes crossing Russia in order to deliver goods to the EU markets crossing the Central Asia region (namely the territories of the above-mentioned Caspian countries) and Azerbaijan. The presence of Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev as a guest during the meeting further confirms this geopolitical trend, openly recognizing Azerbaijan as the main partner to promote infrastructural projects and to concretely exploit new trade corridors. Moreover, Central Asian ministers of transport drafted an Agreement of Strengthening Land Transport Relations in Central Asia in the same days of the consultative meeting, which could allow better coordination of national and regional initiatives to reinforce connectivity (Costa Buranelli, 2023).
These regular annual meetings among Central Asian presidents are the expression of a shared will to build a more integrated region able to autonomously position itself between China and Russia as well as in the international arena, even if some domestic resistances must be lifted. As a matter of fact, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also abstained again from signing the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborhood and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century, proposed in the previous meeting and already signed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
At present, the lack of unanimity to develop a more-inclusive framework of regional cooperation hampers the possibility to promote an incisive dialogue on the most-sensitive issues (i.e water management, regional security, a common approach towards Taliban). Nevertheless, the trend to organise regular meetings since 2019 shows the positive approach of Central Asian presidents towards this framework of dialogue aimed at dealing with regional problems and common threats.
References
Costa Buranelli, Filippo. “Central Asian Regionalism After the 5th Leaders’ Meeting.” The Diplomat. September 19, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/central-asian-regionalism-after-the-5th-leaders-meeting/
Eurasianet. “Central Asia’s leaders get into specifics on trade-boosting initiatives.” September 15, 2023. https://eurasianet.org/central-asias-leaders-get-into-specifics-on-trade-boosting-initiatives