Kazakhstan’s Energy Transition: Examining the Role of Nuclear Power

January 2025

Zhuldyz Ramazanova

THRI Fellow

Kazakhstan, a country endowed with vast uranium resources and a complex nuclear history, is embarking on a transformative path as it prepares to construct its first nuclear power plant (NPP). This step marks a significant milestone in the nation’s ambitious drive to meet its energy needs while advancing its goal of a low-carbon economy. Following the approval of the project in this year’s referendum, more than 70% of Kazakhs expressed support for nuclear energy. While Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a future nuclear energy leader, boasting 13% of the world’s uranium supply, its nuclear legacy, shaped by Soviet-era tests and the Chernobyl disaster, casts a long and complex shadow over this new venture, facing multifaceted debate surrounding environmental, political, and historical concerns that add complexity to the issue. As the country moves forward with its nuclear plans, the question remains: Can Kazakhstan harness the power of its uranium reserves to build a sustainable energy future, while navigating the environmental, political, and historical challenges?

Photo Source: Vecteezy

The debate over nuclear energy in Kazakhstan is shaped by deep concerns from eco-activists and civil society groups. One of the most vocal critics is Vadim Nee, a lawyer specializing in environmental law and a member of the group “АЭС керек емес” (“Nuclear Power Is Not Needed”). Nee has expressed serious concerns about Kazakhstan’s potential nuclear future contesting the idea of nuclear energy as a green alternative to coal: hazardous waste produced by NPPs can lead to accidents and catastrophic consequences. “If an accident occurs, we risk losing one of our strategic water bodies – Lake Balkhash, which has been selected as the site for the NPP,” he warns. Additionally, Mels Eleusizov, president of the Ecological Union of Associations and Enterprises of Kazakhstan “Tabyghat”, also opposes nuclear power, arguing that it poses unnecessary risks to the Kazakh population. He stresses that building a nuclear power plant would expose citizens to dangers that could be avoided with alternative energy sources. The environmental risks, particularly in the event of a disaster, remain a major worry for activists, many of whom believe the consequences would far outweigh the supposed benefits.

Beyond environmental concerns, there are also significant geopolitical risks. Many activists argue that Kazakhstan’s decision to partner with Russia, whose state-owned nuclear giant, Rosatom, is most likely to build the first NPP, could expose the country to political and economic vulnerabilities. While the partnership offers a quicker and cheaper solution to Kazakhstan’s pressing energy needs, some observers caution that reliance on Russian technology, fuel, and expertise could limit Kazakhstan’s energy independence. Aset Nauryzbaev, an economist and former top official at KEGOC, has voiced concerns that a Russian-built nuclear reactor would compromise Kazakhstan’s long-standing policy of multi-vectorism, undermining its political autonomy. “By building its own nuclear power plant here, Russia will be able to keep Kazakhstan in its field of influence. We will depend on their production technologies, fuel, specialists, and they will certainly use this leverage when necessary,” Nauryzbaev said. This concern is compounded by the country’s history of its northern neighbor influence over its nuclear sector, including the 2009 arrest of Mukhtar Dzhakishev, the former head of Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s state nuclear company.

Meanwhile, government officials maintain that nuclear energy is crucial for Kazakhstan’s energy security. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who first suggested the idea of nuclear energy in 2019, has repeatedly stated that nuclear power is essential for Kazakhstan’s future energy security. “The country needs reliable and environmentally clean sources of energy,” he noted in a speech in September 2023, stressing that NPPs could “significantly meet the rapidly growing energy needs of our economy.” Government officials emphasize that nuclear energy is a critical component of Kazakhstan’s strategy to address rising energy demands, particularly in the southern regions where shortages are more acute.

As Kazakhstan moves forward with the construction of its first NPP, the nation faces a delicate balancing act between ensuring its energy security and navigating the environmental, geopolitical, and historical complexities tied to nuclear power”

Kazakhstan’s need for new energy capacity cannot be denied. According to the Minister of Energy, Almasadam Satkaliev, by 2035, electricity consumption is expected to reach 152.4 billion kWh, compared to the 135 billion kWh in 2023. However, existing energy sources, coal, oil, and natural gas, are projected to decline due to aging infrastructure, environmental regulations, and decommissioning. Kazakhstan will need to introduce new power generation capacities totaling 26.5 GW by 2035; a challenge that nuclear energy is believed to meet. Timur Zhantikin, the director general of Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants, advocates strongly for nuclear energy, calling it the stable and safe source of electricity for the country. He points out that many industrial development projects in Kazakhstan have been delayed or stalled due to the lack of sufficient energy supply. “We are still a resource-based economy, but to move beyond this, we need to develop our industry,” he asserts.

The government is also attempting to mitigate concerns about dependency on external actors. Satkaliev suggests that Kazakhstan’s status as the world’s largest uranium producer places it in a strong position to control its energy future. Kazakhstan’s ability to produce fuel assemblies for pressurized water reactors of French and Chinese designs has given the country more autonomy in its energy strategy. By diversifying its partnerships, Kazakhstan aims to avoid excessive reliance on any single country. Kazakhstan narrowed the field to four potential partners in this project, CNNC (China), KHNP (South Korea), Rosatom (Russia), and EDF (France), while also considering building an international consortium.

Furthermore, the oversight of the nuclear project by international organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will ensure strict compliance with global safety standards and reduce the risk of corruption, which has plagued many other megaprojects in the past. The government has also promised to create a transparent framework that includes rigorous safety checks and regulatory measures to minimize the potential for malpractices.

As Kazakhstan moves forward with the construction of its first NPP, the nation faces a delicate balancing act between ensuring its energy security and navigating the environmental, geopolitical, and historical complexities tied to nuclear power. While the referendum shows public support for the project, the ongoing debates highlight the challenges that lie ahead. The success of this ambitious energy transition will depend not only on the safe and efficient implementation of nuclear power but also on Kazakhstan’s ability to address these complex concerns in a way that benefits all sectors of society, fostering a sustainable and independent energy future.

References:

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Satubaldina, A. (2024 , October 8). Kazakhstan’s Official Referendum Results Out: 71% Back Nuclear Power Plant Proposal. Astana Times. https://astanatimes.com/2024/10/kazakhstans-official-referendum-results-out-71-back-nuclear-power-plant-proposal/

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